Is health and physical education beneficial enough to students to keep Essay

Is health and physical education beneficial enough to students to keep in our school systems - Essay Example 7) However, school curriculum should not be confined to teaching academic subjects that hone the students’ intellectual skills. The personality and behavior of an individual is developed through absorbing diverse issues that shape their needs, preferences and actions. Individuals do not exist in a nutshell; they interact, relate, and behave in specific manners which eventually affect their health. According to Kolbe (1993 p. 12), â€Å"the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) finds that most major health problems in the United States today are caused by six categories of behavior: behaviors that lead to intentional and unintentional injuries; smoking; alcohol and other drug use; sexual behaviors leading to sexually transmitted diseases, HIV infection, and unintended pregnancy; poor nutrition; and lack of physical activity†. He further emphasized that â€Å"behaviors and attitudes about health that are initiated during childhood are responsible for most of the leading causes of death, illness, and disability in the United States today. Comprehensive school health education programs represent one effective way of providing students with the knowledge and skills to prevent health-impairing behaviors.† (Kolbe 1993 p. 13) The schools’ curriculum should include subjects which promote health and physical education to enforce correct behavioral patter ns at a young age and continue this positive reinforcement until adulthood. Therefore, health promotion and physical education in the schools is of critical importance. There has been the underlying belief that â€Å"if young people (5-18 years) receive basic knowledge about a health issue, they will adopt appropriate health enhancing behaviours. Most school health programs, projects and packages were designed based on this belief. However, research in the last 20 years suggests that the provision of information will lead to behavior change approach is

The College Culture Essay Example for Free

The College Culture Essay One of my most distinct characteristics is that I am a Born Again Christian. Being a Christian is a way of life not just a set of practices. My religion defines who I am and dictates my actions. Being a Christian influences how I speak, what clothes I wear and what activities I engage in. Our church is an evangelistic church and so we’re encouraged to invite people to church activities. One goal of this study is to find out how an outsider receives these invitations. It will also be found out what factors determine the non-Christians’ response to such invitations. Being a Christian has changed how I act in situations and most people I know have adjusted to my principles. Some have also generalized my personal principles such that when they meet other Christians they assume the latter will act the same way as I do in a given situation. Thus another aim of this study is to see the effect that interactions with Christians has on the perception of Christians as a whole. In order to achieve these goals interviews will be undertaken: one with a person practicing a different religion and another with a person with no professed religion. The interview will start with a discussion of what, in the interviewee’s perspective, is a Christian. Questions pertaining to how Christians may be differentiated from non-Christians will also be asked. This will be followed by whether or not the interviewee has ever been invited to a Christian gathering before and how he or she responded to this invitation. Next, the interviewee will be asked to relate a memorable experience with a Christian. Finally, the interviewee will be asked to assess based on his interactions with Christians how he believes Christians perceive non-Christians of the same religious belief or non-belief as him. It must be borne in mind that the interview itself might be misconstrued as a means to invite the non-Christian to church. The interviewee of another religion may even become defensive and this would confound the answers given. Therefore, from the onset it should be made clear that the purpose of the interview is to improve Christians’ relations with non-Christians and to correct any Christian practices which promote negative impressions. As Patton stated in his work, an interviewer must be able to build trust at the onset of the interview and the purpose for the interview must be made clear to the interviewee (1987). The topic of religion isn’t so much a welcomed concept particularly because of the rivalry and conflicts that have arisen â€Å"for the sake of religion. † In order to prevent the interviews from being another venue for such arguments, a collaborative approach will be encouraged through the research. As it has been emphasized in other studies, research isn’t a means to exploit the â€Å"other† rather it is a means to reach a mutually beneficial conclusion regarding overlapping interactions of different cultures (Fitzgerald 2005; de Munk Korotayev 2000). Analysis of Interview Material Interviews were conducted with two non-Christians (see Appendix A and B). As was indicated to the respondents, this research has been conducted in order to improve interactions of Christians with non-Christians. As has been discussed by past researchers, a cross-cultural study should benefit not just the researcher but also the person studied (Gibbs 2001). The very essence of collaborative research is that all parties to the study are benefitted by the findings. Such a conclusion may be reached through the results of the present study. The responses of the respondents may be classified into several dimensions. The first is how past interactions with Christians have affected the respondents’ perception of Christians. One respondent showed that a positive experience with a workmate allowed him to see Christians in a better light. Despite having had many negative experiences with Christians, a positive personal experience with several Christians was able to lessen his negative impression of Christians in general. On the other hand, the other respondent whose personal experience with Christians was negative has now generalized the impression and applied it to all Christians. Therefore, the personal experience with Christians is more important in forming an impression of what a Christian is. However, for persons with deep-rooted biases against Christians due to external factors, such as intercultural conflict, the personal experience only tempers the bias but doesn’t altogether eliminate it. This is the case with the Moslem respondent interviewed. It must therefore be asked what qualifies as a positive experience. In the case of the Moslem respondent, the positive experience consisted of the Christian attempting to understand the former’s religion. It can be seen from the second appended interview that one of the reasons why a negative impression was held of Christians is because â€Å"I leave them alone to believe what they want. They could at least extend the same courtesy. † This shows that the respondent also hopes for some tolerance from the Christians she encounters. Furthermore, when asked how she felt regarding being invited to her mother’s Christian gatherings, the respondent showed that she felt irritated because she had already made it clear that she didn’t wish to go. From the above, it can be seen that a first step towards a positive impression is a manifestation of tolerance on the part of the Christian. This tolerance required in cross-cultural interactions of religions aids in the facilitation of interactions between their subcultures (de Munck Korotayev 2000). This is important particularly since the growing complexity of society ensures that the religious cultural units will interact in one regard or another. However, as evidenced by the Moslem respondent, this tolerance is not sufficient to overcome the in-bred conflicts that religious differences have fostered between cultural units. Therefore, a greater level of understanding between cultures is necessary in order to bridge the gap between religions. In order that this might be achieved the respondents reflect some insight. The agnostic respondent stated, â€Å"But the fact is that they can’t explain why they believe what they do. They can’t even explain half of what’s written down in the Bible. † The Moslem respondent on the other hand stated, â€Å"But there are those who seem to know about the love that their Jesus taught. I have no problem being friends with people like that. † The above statements show that Christians need to know about the foundation of their own faith in order to be able to preach it to others. A failure to understand their own religion comes across to non-Christians as insincerity. This insincerity renders the religion in itself doubtful. Non-Christians would thus be even more unwilling to learn about a religion which was understood and misapplied by its own followers. Finally, the interview shows that in order that Christians might become more effective in interacting with non-Christians they should be able to engage in a bottom-up process. What normally occurs when Christians invite other people is that they become imposing yet they don’t make the effort to understand the factors which the person being invited must consider before giving a response to the invitation. In order that they would be able to connect with the person being invited they must be able to understand how the other perceives them as Christians. The Moslem respondent stated, â€Å"I think they think the same we do about them. That we are wrong in our belief. I think that a lot of Americans are afraid of Moslems though. † This shows that he believes that Christians are as stubborn in their belief as he is. Therefore, an invitation from them would mean an attempt at conversion. Being a firm believer of Islam, he would of course say no as he would have no desire to be converted. Therefore, the Christian should be able to explain to the non-Christian the purpose of the invitation, particularly if it is for the reason simply of being able to get to know the other person better. In answer to the question of how she felt when being invited, the agnostic respondent was able to intone a similar response, â€Å"Annoyed. I mean, they just don’t seem to get a clue. If I wanted to go to church I’d do it without any prodding. † This shows that the method being employed by the Christian mother was no longer effective. In fact, it hadn’t been effective for a long time already. And yet, she didn’t change her approach or try to talk with her daughter in a more personal manner in order to understand the daughter’s aversion to religion. The respondents gave answers regarding how they defined what a Christian was. In both answers it is evident that they perceive Christianity as a set of practices and rituals. The essence of Christianity as a lifestyle and as a relational interaction was lost to them. Having learned about their experiences with Christians, it isn’t surprising that they feel this way. It’s clear therefore from this study that in order to improve cross-cultural interactions between Christians and non-Christians a more personal interaction should be encouraged. This interaction should be imbued with a sense of tolerance for the other and a desire to understand the situation and motives of such other. References De Munck, V. A. Korotayev (2000), â€Å"Cultural Units in Cross-Cultural Research,† Ethnology, 39(4), 335-448. Fitzgerald, T. (2005), â€Å"Cross-Cultural Research Principles Partnerships,† Management in Education, 19(1), 17-20. Gibbs, M. (2001), â€Å"Toward a Strategy for Undertaking Cross-Cultural Collaborative Research,† Society and Natural Resources, 14, 673-687. Patton, M. Q. (1987), â€Å"How to Use Qualitative Methods in Evaluation,† CA: Sage Publications. Appendix A: Interview with a non-Christian practicing a different religion Interviewer: Good afternoon. First, thank you for agreeing to meet me for this interview. Before we begin I just want to remind you that the purpose of this study is to better understand the interactions of Christians with members of other religions. Your answers will be used only for the purpose of this study and for no other purposes. Having said that, are you willing to participate in this study? Respondent: Yes. I: Thank you. First let’s start with some information about you. Is there a religion that you practice? R: I’m a Moslem. I: How long have you been a Moslem? R: Well, I was born into a Moslem family so I can say that I have been practicing my faith since I was born. I: In your perspective, how would you define a Christian? R: Well, Christians are people who believe that Jesus is God and not Allah. We Moslems also believe in Jesus but he is only a prophet and only Allah is God. I: Have you ever interacted with Christians? R: Of course. Most people here are Christians and so I have to deal and talk with them every day. I: Have you ever been invited to attend a Christian gathering? R: I work with some Christians who have once or twice asked me to go to an activity or concert. I: Did you go with them? R: No. It’s not allowed in Islam to acknowledge other gods. I don’t see the point of going anyway. It would be a lie for me to pretend to believe what they would say there. I: How did you feel when you were invited? R: It was a little awkward. I didn’t understand why they would want to. It’s not like I would go with them. But at least they don’t give me a hard time about being a Moslem. I: Are there Christians who do? R: Sure. It’s not new. There are really those types. I: That’s interesting because I also wanted to find out how you think Christians view Moslems. How do you think Christians view Moslems? R: I think they think the same we do about them. That we are wrong in our belief. I think that a lot of Americans are afraid of Moslems though. Everyone seems to be afraid we’ll turn into Osama Bin Laden or something. I: Thank you for sharing that. I’d like to ask you now about some personal experiences you’ve had with Christians. Is there any particular instance, good or bad, that you shared with a Christian that sticks out from your other interactions? R: I remember this one guy at work, the same guy who invited me to that concert at their church, he asked me once about Islam and he seemed genuinely interested. He tried finding similarities between Islam and Christianity. He was pretty nice. He just struck me as different from most Christians and I appreciated that he tried to understand my religion and didn’t just base his impression on what other people were saying. I: Alright, you’ve been very responsive so I have only one last question left. As a whole, how would you describe Christians? R: Well, most Christians don’t know their own religion. There are some who take it too far and they can be really condescending. But there are those who seem to know about the love that their Jesus taught. I have no problem being friends with people like that. I: [Respondent] that concludes our interview. Thank you very much for your time. Appendix B: Interview with a non-Christian without any professed religion Interviewer: Good morning. First, thank you for agreeing to meet me for this interview. Before we begin I just want to remind you that the purpose of this study is to better understand the interactions of Christians with members of other religions. Your answers will be used only for the purpose of this study and for no other purposes. Having said that, are you willing to participate in this study? Respondent: Sure. I: Thank you. Let’s start with some information about you. Is there any religion that you practice? R: I don’t exactly believe in organized religion. I: Was there any religion that you used to practice? R: Well, we used to say a prayer at the dinner table before dinner. But that was a long time ago. I just don’t see the need to anymore. I: Alright. Well, as I told you earlier, the focus of this interview is Christians and their interactions with others. So to start off, how would you define a Christian? R: Well, Christians are people who read the Bible, believe in God, pray, sing praise songs, all that. I: Have you ever been invited to a Christian gathering or activity? R: Sure. My mom used to make me go to church with her. She hasn’t stopped pestering me about it yet. I: Do you ever go? R: Not since I could say no without getting grounded. I: Why don’t you? R: Like I said, I don’t see the purpose. I mean look at my dad, he doesn’t go and he’s alright. If prayer is all there is to it then my mom is probably praying enough to save all of us. It just doesn’t seem important. I: How does it make you feel when you’re invited? R: Annoyed. I mean, they just don’t seem to get a clue. If I wanted to go to church I’d do it without any prodding. Besides, if God were real then they wouldn’t have to work so hard to make the rest of us believe in Him. It all just seems like a whole bunch of lip service. It gets tiring. I: It’s very helpful that you’re talking about your family and how they are active in practicing Christianity. But apart from your family have you had any other interactions with Christians? R: Sure. They’re all the same. Preachy. When you ask them about why they’re doing it though it all boils down to cop-out faith. Who can argue with that? I: Is there any particular experience you’ve had with a Christian that strikes out? R: I have this housemate who’s all about religion. She keeps leaving little cards with psalms on them in my things. I just find it a little irritating that she can’t just accept that I don’t do that kind of thing. I: The interview is going well so far so I only have one last question. How do you describe Christians in general? R: Well, Christians can be really devout about their faith and about having other people believe the same thing. But the fact is that they can’t explain why they believe what they do. They can’t even explain half of what’s written down in the Bible. Even worse, they can’t understand that other people just don’t want to believe the same things that they do. I mean, it’s not that I hate god. I just don’t believe he exists. And they act like that makes me the worst scum on earth. I leave them alone to believe what they want. They could at least extend the same courtesy. I: Thank you so much. Your responses have been really helpful. That concludes our interview.

Computer Matching Versus Privacy :: Private Personal Information Essays

Computer Matching Versus Privacy Introduction With the advent of new computer technologies, the ease with which new information can be discovered from aggregating data sources is astounding. This technique is called computer matching. When it comes to doing research this can be an incredible source of new ideas and correlations between sets of data. However, this same technique can be applied to information about individual people. Suddenly, by pulling together disparate sources of data, private information can be learned about an individual without their knowledge or consent. If the organization that is capable of computer matching is a government, it places a lot of information in the hands of a powerful entity. A question of whether the government should have this new information is a significant one. What if the government were not allowed to ask you for information that is discoverable through computer matching? Should the government be allowed to use this technique to yield the same information? This ethical dilemma is covered in this paper. Relevant information will be used from the laws in the United States and the European Union to illustrate the different perspectives on the privacy of citizens and the approaches each government takes to it. Letter of the Law or Spirit? Many countries around the world have laws on what information a government can ask from its citizens. These laws typically focus on protecting the privacy of individual citizens and preventing discrimination based upon the collected information. Computer matching could place this same information in the hands of the government. In the United States, US law prohibits the direct collection of certain information. This includes, but not limited to information about ethnicity, sexual orientation, etc1. The European Union (EU) has set guidelines for members of the union. These guidelines set strict rules for the â€Å"processing† of personal information. The EU defines processing as collection, use, storage, retrieval, transmission, destruction, and other actions2. The rules also provide provisions requiring the consent of the individual person before this â€Å"processing† can occur. It is apparent that the intentions of the laws for the United States and the EU are to protect the privacy of their citizens. However, loopholes exist in these laws that allow the governments to bend these laws. In the United States, the law prevents the government from asking for certain information, but it does not prevent it from purchasing this information or using matching techniques to discover it.

Fate or Free will Romeo and Juliet Essay

Fate: Is it just an excuse? Excuses are something people use to clear themselves or others of the blame of their own foolish actions. In Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet, it is not fate, but impulsive and desperate actions that bring about the downfall of Romeo and Juliet. In the Victorian era, fate was known as the development of events out of human control, and determined by a supernatural power. By no means was the demise of Romeo and Juliet out their control. It happened because of the choices they themselves to make. Romeo always blames his own reckless actions on fate. Romeo is warned not to go to the masquerade party but tells fate to â€Å"steerage of [his] course† and â€Å"direct [his] sail† and goes anyway. Romeo knows himself that he will die if he goes but still chooses to go. Romeo decides that whatever happens is up to fate and it’s completely out of his control. Also, after killing Tybalt, he calls himself â€Å"Fortune’s fool† and realizes he will be punished severely (Rom 3.1.142). Romeo is basically says he is a subject to the whims of fate. He thinks fate is playing around with him and not taking responsibility for what he himself did. However when he hears of Juliet’s â€Å"death† Romeo tries to â€Å"defy the stars† and kills himself (5.1.25). Romeo is taking responsibility for his actions by trying to defy his â€Å"fate† and finally taking thing into his own hands. This doesn’t work, since he didn’t bo ther to check if Juliet was still alive and just kills himself in his attempt to be together with her, even if it’s in death. Romeo uses fate to justify his actions and say that a power outside of his control fueled his action, but instead everything was just his impulsive choices. Juliet makes reckless and impulsive actions knowing very well what the consequences could be, and then blames it on her unavoidable fate. When Juliet first sees Romeo at the party, Juliet tells the nurse to â€Å"go ask [for his] name. If he be married† and says that her grave is â€Å"like to be [her] wedding bed†, foreshadowing her own death (1.5.148). Juliet wants to know if Romeo is married, and she is just a thirteen year old girl who saw Romeo the first time in her life. Juliet is the one that eventually proposes to Romeo, and she does this knowing to be married means her own death. When Romeo  visits Juliet on her balcony that night, she says she has â€Å"no joy of this contract tonight, it is too rash, too unadvised, [and] too sudden’ about Romeo swearing his love to her. Even before they are married, Juliet already knows their actions are impulsive. Combined with the fact that she even foreshadows her own death, she still rashly decides to marry Rome o. This wedding was by her own choice and not like the one where her parents force her to marry Paris. In addition, after Romeo leaves Juliet after their only night together, Juliet pleads to fate to â€Å"be fickle†, and to â€Å"not keep him long, but to send him back† to her (3.5.63). She also hopes that since Romeo is â€Å"renown’d for faith† unlike fate (which is fickle) fortune should be kind to him. She is excusing his killing of her cousin Tybalt with the fact that fate is unreliable and unpredictable. It wasn’t fate being unpredictable, it was Romeo losing his cool and acting rashly. Juliet shows that she knows the consequences of her actions, but goes forth with them anyways. Friar Lawrence’s reckless actions brought together the deaths, and he blames them on fate. When Friar John tells him that the letter couldn’t be sent, Frair Lawrence decides to blame it on â€Å"unhappy fortune† and not himself (5.2.17). He is a grown man, but decides to let Friar John travel alone to deliver the message. Instead of sending the message himself, he gives the crutial task to people that aren’t even involved. Knowing this, he blames his own blatant fault on fate being unhappy. Also, when Friar Lawrence walks in to see both Paris and Romeo dead, he says it is â€Å"lamentable chance† that they are dead (5.3.151). Again, fate is blamed for something easily avoided. He is saying that it was out of his control that the two died, but Frair Lawrence was the one who married them and masterminded the plan in the first place. Not only that, when Juliet awakens the Friar tells her â€Å"a power greater than [they] can contradict has thwarted [t heir] intents† and as a result, Romeo is now dead (5.3.158). When he talks about a power that could not be resisted he is talking about fate and how fate ruined the plan to reunite Romeo and Juliet. He was the one that botched the sending of the message to Romeo. The Friar just doesn’t take any responsibility at all for his actions and opts instead to blame uncontrollable forces. Throughout Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet, the characters’ own impetuous and  brash choices, not fate, bring about the deaths. Characters repeatedly used fate as an excuse by saying the series of events were completely out of their control. In contrast, everything could have been avoided if the characters just decided to think rationally. By having them blame fate, Shakespeare is asserting that people need to take responsibility for their own actions. They should realize it is their own choices that affect the future, not fate. People’s destinies can be changed, and it is not predetermined by an all-powerful force.

Fascist Government Essay

Fascist government is better compared to a communism government in that it seeks the reality of the society on strength and weaknesses of nations.   Historically, fascist governments opposed the class conflicts and emphasized that they would forever exist. Though fascists have been used pejoratively in the present setting, it is clear that communism was worse in history as it advocated for classless and stateless society that declared allegiance to the Marxism-Leninism a notion that was impossible to apply.   It is no doubt that communism orientation of social organization where totalitarians dominated and above all, the self perpetuating political party system was the major cause for excessive anarchy like that experienced under the soviet rule. Overview This paper explores fascist government as the better option to communism with greater focus on the historical events.   Through use of questions and answers, the paper explores the principles and theoretical considerations of the two systems of government.   It compares the major occurrences under the two systems of the government to support the thesis statements.   With reference to the period of application, the paper gives a clear analysis of the logistics behind the fascists’ governments as opposed to the communist administration. Questions and answers What are the principles of communism and how effectively did communism governments apply them? Communism government is guided by the main principle of a society that is egalitarian and classless mainly based on common ownership and control of the production means. The principles call for a stateless society with a form of government that declares allegiance to Marxism-Leninism.   Application of communism has and is always controversial in that the well outlined principles form a reciprocating platform for abuse by the same governments. Remarkably, it is communism that has made USSR to be remembered for its ruthlessness when dealing with the community.   In 1928, Joseph Stalin application of communism which he claimed to be directly under his predecessor Lenin innovation, were borne of mayhem and anarchy.   It was marred with extra judicial killings, spying and elimination of the political opponents (Lauren, 173-177). As indicated by fascism, it was important to acknowledge the need for the classes in the society as they were the ones that bore them.   Fascist governments therefore applied the correct principles of the time that were bound on the desire to grow and expand beyond their boundaries.   Though application of the survival for the fittest in the human realms was a major shenanigan, fascism has been credited for creating nationalism and enhancing identity.   Sir Osward Mosley, the leader of British Union of Fascists emphasized that communism was a major cause of suppression for democracy it claimed to advocate (Daniels, 38-45). What were the consequences of communism and abolishing private property ownership to ensure equality? Communism was mainly directed at seeking communal ownership of the production systems in the society.   Under this system however, the government was given a better operating platform to practice massive corruption to the people.   Though the concept was initially well thought of, its application mostly presented the reciprocal a notion that made the whole system to become a failure.   The death of Karl Marx at end of the 19th century has been cited to be the possible end of real communism. Historians indicate that fascist governments rose as a response to the events of World War I, a notion that cited the possible fallouts in democracy and liberalism for their favor of individualism or internationalism.   Historically, this concept was faulty and saw the establishments of the fascist governments like in Italy (Furet and Furet, 178-188). How effective was the system and what were the repercussions? Application of communism was a bloody notion that had far much reaching implication even to the current society.   During the World War II, the communists consolidated power through massive blood shed in most of the Eastern Europe.   In Russia, the struggle by many countries to get independence never bore fruits until the international community intervened later in the 20th century.   Though communist governments claimed to be borne by the people themselves, it is however ironical that most of the third world colonies that adopted the communist ideals like Cambodia, Lao, and Angola are still among the poorest in the world. Though fascist government promoted the growth of their empire beyond their own territories, they supported the nationalism and were mainly driven by charismatic leaders.   This gave the notion of the great capacity of the fascism governments to rationally reason out their application policies.   Nakano Seigo of Japan noted that fascist governments had the capacity to practice democracy than did communist governments (Furet &Furet Deborah, 186-190).

Construction and Validation of a General Science Aptitude Essay Example

Construction and Validation of a General Science Aptitude Essay Example Construction and Validation of a General Science Aptitude Essay Construction and Validation of a General Science Aptitude Essay Ilorin Journal of Education, Vol. 27 August, 2007 CONSTRUCTION AND VALIDATION OF A GENERAL SCIENCE APTITUDE TEST (GSAT) FOR NIGERIAN JUNIOR SECONDARY SCHOOL GRADUATES Ariyo, Akinyele Oyetunde (PhD), International Centre for Educational Evaluation, Institute of Education, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria. [emailprotected] com +2348034292924 Abstract This paper is a report of a study whose major purpose was to develop and validate a General Science Aptitude Test (GSAT) for Junior Secondary School graduate seeking admission into senior secondary school one in Nigeria. The specific objectives were to describe the various stages in the development and validation of GSAT and also to determine the psychometric properties of the instrument. The Pearson Product Moment Correlation, Test difficult index, discriminative index and the KuderRichardson 21 statistics were used for the analysis of results. The results of analysis show that the GSAT was moderately difficult for the sampled students (average item difficult is 0. 39), while the instrument was found to be reliable since internal consistency was found to be 0. 90. The inter-correlation among the GSAT‘s sub-scales was found to be substantial . GSAT is recommended for use in other parts of the world. Introduction There is a strong agreement among educationist and psychologist on the utility of aptitude tests in the process of educational and vocational decisions, about placement, streaming, admission and classification of students and job seekers (Gay, 1980; Macklem, 1990). According to Gay (1980), aptitude tests help the teacher to test more realistic expectations of students’ abilities and facilitate the identification of under achievers. The terms intelligence, ability, and aptitude are often used interchangeably to refer to behaviour that is used to predict future learning or performance. However, subtle differences exist between the terms. The tests designed to measure these attributes differ in several significant ways. Like intelligence tests, aptitude tests measure a students overall performance across a broad range of mental capabilities. But aptitude tests also often include items which measure more specialized abilities such as verbal and numerical skillsthat predict scholastic performance in educational programs. Compared to achievement tests, aptitude tests cover a broader area and look at a wider range of experiences. Achievement tests tend to measure recent learning and are closely tied to particular school subjects. Aptitude tests tell us what a student brings to the task regardless of the specific curriculum that the student has already experienced. The difference between aptitude and achievement tests is sometimes a matter of degree. Some aptitude and 20 Ariyo, Akinyele Oyetunde achievement tests look a lot alike. In fact, the higher a student goes in levels of education, the more the content of aptitude tests resembles achievement tests. This is because the knowledge that a student has already accumulated is a good predictor of success at advanced levels. In literature there is no single definition of aptitude. Some investigators defined aptitude as the characteristics of a person that are regarded as indices of his capacity to acquire, through future training some specific set of responses (Aiken, 1988; Gronlund, 1981). On the contrary some other investigators see it as natural or innate capacity for a particular performance (Yejide, 1973; Thorndike Hagen, 1977). Aptitude tests are cognitive (intellectual) measures used to predict future performance in some activities such as school learning and other forms of accomplishment (Aiken, 1988; Gronlund, 1981; Sax, 1980). Aptitude tests are widely used in schools and industries. Teachers might want to administer aptitude test to help them identify students who have potential to perform well in physics in the future so that they could be offered physics instruction. This is in line with previous research findings, whereby a positive link had already been established (Aiken, 1988; Gagne Briggs, 1979; Gronlund, 1981; Thorndike Hagen, 1977). The United States Employment service developed the General Aptitude Test Battery (GATB) which is widely used in the United States by State Employment offices and has been made available as a model or starting point for the development of aptitude batteries in other countries (Tittle, 1990). The Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) is the most widely used aptitude battery in United States high schools. The Differential Aptitude Tests (DAT) was designed primarily for educational and vocational counselling in U. S. A. secondary schools (Tittle, 1984). An early ork on the differential test is a battery devised for the selection of apprentices in the metal trades. Aptitude testing derived prominence when it became apparent that intelligence tests were rather limited in their coverage of special abilities or talents (Denga, 1987). Ikeotuonye (1986) validated the Differential Aptitude Test (DAT) in Kaduna State of Nigeria. The DAT battery consists of eight independent tests, n amely: Verbal Reasoning (VR), Numerical Ability (NA), Abstract (CSA), Mechanical Reasoning (MR), Space Relations (SR), Language usage: Spelling (LU-I) and Language usage: Grammar (LU-II). The specific objective of the study was to determine whether the location of schools, in terms of ruralurban categorization, had any effect on the students’ scores on the Differential Aptitude Tests. The sample was made up of 75 girls and 325 boys (400 students) from eight secondary schools in Kaduna State. The results of the study showed that the students in urban areas performed better than the students in rural areas. It was then established empirically that the experiential background of the students had observable effects on their aptitudes. Attempts have been made to develop tests of intelligence and creativity (Bakare, 1972; McCarthy, 1973; Ohuche Ohuche 1973; Yoloye, 1973) adapted various standardized tests of intelligence in measuring pupils’ achievements. Also, Akinboye (1977) developed a test aimed at measuring the creative abilities of post primary students. 21 Ilorin Journal of Education, Vol. 27 August, 2007 In Nigeria, the Federal Government established the Nigerian Aptitude Test Unit (NATU) in 1963 which has helped the West African Examination Council (WAEC) in constructing and administering aptitude tests (WAEC NEWS, 1989). In order to reduce the dependence on foreign tests, the Test Development and Research office (TEDRO) a branch of WAEC came into existence in 1963. TEDRO has designed over twenty-one (21) types of aptitude tests. W. A. E. C. aptitude tests were designed for selection of candidates into various education programmes such as: secondary schools, Vocational /Technical schools, Schools of Nursing, the Polytechnics and Occupational services. The tests are useful in streaming students into various courses of study, for example, the scholastic or purely academic science, technical and commercial (Soriyan, 1978). Yejide (1979) indicated that the predictor tests for science ability designed by W. A. E. C. are a battery of eight aptitude tests. It consists of verbal Analogies (VAL), the reading comprehension (RDL), the memory Test (MEM), Graph (GPH), Arithmetic (RTA), Tables (TAB) and science information (SCI) subtests. They are called I-D tests, specifically designed for use in Africa. They were developed during 1960 1964 in a project supported by the U. S. Agency for International Development which gave the contract to the American Institute for Research. The introduction of the 6-3-3-4 system of education in Nigeria in 1982, constituted a major boost for psychological testing. The Guidance and Counselling Unit of the Federal Ministry of Education, Nigeria commissioned experts from the Nigerian universities and representative from W. A. E. C. to develop and standardize aptitude tests for use in counselling and placement of students after junior secondary education. The tests were standardized in 1986 (Denga, 1987). As at present in Nigeria, the administration of aptitude tests is a yearly exercise in the Federal unity schools. The National Examinations Council (N. E. C. O. ) based at Minna usually administers a series of Aptitude Tests on junior secondary three (JSIII) students in Federal unity schools for the purpose of placement in different classes such as Arts, commercial, science and technical classes at the senior secondary school one. The developmental trend in Aptitudes testing revealed the need to conduct more studies in the country that involve aptitude testing especially that will cut across the Federal, State and Privately owned secondary schools. Uses of Aptitude Tests In general, aptitude test results have three major uses: Instructional: Teachers can use aptitude test results to adapt their curricula to match the level of their students, or to design assignments for students who differ widely. Aptitude test scores can also help teachers form realistic expectations of students. Knowing something about the aptitude level of students in a given class can help a teacher identify which students are not learning as much as could be predicted on the basis of aptitude scores. For instance, if a whole class were performing less well than would be predicted from aptitude test results, then curriculum, objectives, teaching methods, or student characteristics might be investigated. Administrative: Aptitude test scores can identify the general aptitude level of a high school, for example. This can be helpful in determining how much 22 Ariyo, Akinyele Oyetunde emphasis should be given to college preparatory programs. Aptitude tests can be used to help identify students to be accelerated or given extra attention, for grouping, and in predicting job training performance. Guidance: Guidance counselors use aptitude tests to help parents develop realistic expectations for their childs school performance and to help students understand their own strengths and weaknesses. According to Macklem (1990), research data shows that individually administered aptitude tests have the following qualities: They are excellent predictors of future scholastic achievement. They provide ways of comparing a childs performance with that of other children in the same situation. They provide a profile of strengths and weaknesses. They assess differences among individuals. They have uncovered hidden talents in some children, thus improving their educational opportunities. They are valuable tools for working with handicapped children. Research indicates that self-awareness and self-control are the building blocks upon which people skills are built. In other words, without awareness and control of your emotions and knowledge of how emotions affect your behaviors, there is little, if any, foundation upon which to build people skills (Emotional Intelligence Screening EQ test01). People skills† is a term that encompasses a number of important competencies such as social and organizational awareness and the ability to manage relationships well. People skills are more a product of environment than of genes. The fact is that no one is too old to learn, practice and acquire new people skills, or emotional intelligence. On account of aptitude test considerable utility, therefore, several approaches have been tried in the overall efforts to produce valid and reliable instruments for the measurements of aptitude. Among the various approaches available for the construction of aptitude tests are: 1. The differential test approach, the component ability test approach, the work sample test approach and the analogous (Horrocks and Schoonover 1968). 2. The process of similarities, verbal analogies, memory, comprehension boxes approaches (WAEC I-D). 3. Comparison approaches (Cooley, 1958). In the differential approach a number of relatively distinct abilities believed to be of major importance in assessing and predicting human behaviour in areas of general and special bilities are measured. The component ability test is a test of a single ability, the analogous test either by duplicating the pattern in miniature or by simulating the job without presenting the examinee with an exact reproduction of it. One particular advantage of the analogous test is that it is not necessary to identify the abilities, which underline the task since at least part of the actual job performance is stimulated. The work sample test requires the examinee to perform all or part of the working operations of a given job under non-testing condition. The WAEC I-D approach consists of using similarities, analogies, 23 Ilorin Journal of Education, Vol. 27 August, 2007 memory, comprehension, and boxes among others in the construction of aptitude test items. The comparison approach involves specific abilities needed by practicing scientists. One of the methods of statistical analysis useful for this approach is a factor analysis, which analyses the interrelationships among a battery of test. For the purpose of construction of SGAT an attempt was made by combining the various approaches discussed in the literature. This study developed and validated and a General Science Aptitude Test for Junior Secondary School graduates seeking admission into Senior Secondary School. Research Questions 1. What is the internal consistency of General Science Aptitude Test (GSAT)? 2. What is the discrimination index of GSAT? 3. What is the difficult index of GSAT? 4. What are the relationships among GSAT subscales? Methodology In constructing the present Science Aptitude Test, an extensive review of literature was first undertaken to unearth the various de-limitations of aptitude test and aptitudes construction techniques by different authors. Five broad areas of science aptitudes were identified which formed the five component parts of the instrument. They are Biology (BIO), Chemistry (CHE), General Reasoning (GER), Mathematics (MAT) and Physics (PHY). After obtaining these broad science areas, the next step consisted of writing items bearing in mind the building principles in the various types of aptitudes test construction approaches. The items obtained in this way were then subjected to vigorous editing and formulation. The items judged satisfactory on these bases were then grouped into the existing ive subset areas of SGAT in terms of logical and content analysis. This grouping produced 16 items in each of the five areas making up to 80 items in all. With respect to the mode of response to the test items, it was decided that the multiple-choice items with four option alternative format should be used. Sampling Procedure for Trial Testing At this stage, an experimental version of the Science General Aptitude Test (GSAT ) was trial tested. Five Junior Secondary Schools (JSS) in Jos, Nigeria (1 Federal School type – 2 State Schools type and 2 Voluntary Agency School type) were randomly chosen for the trial testing. In each of the five schools, 10 students in Junior Secondary Three (JS 3) were chosen making a total of 25 boys and 25 girls. The SGAT was administered to those 50 students and a score of 1 was assigned to each correct option of each item. The discrimination and test difficulty indices of each item as well as the average discrimination index and difficulty index in each subsets of the test were obtained in order to determine the value and position of each item and each sub-test in the whole test. Based on these results, the SGAT items were 24 Ariyo, Akinyele Oyetunde eviewed. Using the test difficulty indices, the subset were re-arranged in order of difficulty, thus the BIO sub-test of SGAT was found mostly easy and PHY sub-test was found more difficult. Then, BIO was put first in the test while PHY items were put last. Similarly, in each sub-test, the items were re-arranged in order of difficulty level. The easier items (i. e. the items that many students passed) were put before the difficult items (i. e. the items many students failed). Bloom (1976), suggested that good item difficulty should fall within the range of 0. 40 to 0. 60. To maximize the psychometric properties of GSAT items the lowest and highest discriminative and item difficulty indices using 27% upper scorers group and 27% lower scorers group results were eliminated until 10 items remain in each subsets. The final form of the GSAT therefore consists of 50 items, 10 in each sub-test area. Reliability and Validity of the Science General Aptitude Test (SGAT) Reliability In determining the reliability of GSAT, three groups of secondary school students in JSS 3 whose ages range between 12 and 18 years were used. Group 1 consisted of 44 JSS 3 students (24 boys and 20 females). Group 2 consisted of 44 JSS 3 students (16 males and females). Group three consisted of 135 JSS 3 (86 boys and 49 girls). The group one students represented the Federal owned School Type while Group 2 students represented the state owned school type and group three students represented students from Voluntary owned school Type. In all, 221 JSS III students in Jos were involved in the exercise. The performance of these students on SGAT and its subsets were analysed using the Kudar Richardson formular 21 in order to estimate the internal consistency of the Test. The internal consistency estimate, which is a measure of reliability, is shown in a table 1 below. Table 1: Internal Consistencies of GSAT and its Subscale GSAT and its Subscales GSAT Biology Chemistry General Reasoning Mathematics Internal Consistency Using Kr 21 0. 9 0. 68 0. 62 0. 61 0. 43 No. of Items 50 10 10 10 10 Table 2 shows the summary of discrimination indices of GSAT and its subscales. 25 Ilorin Journal of Education, Vol. 27 August, 2007 Table 2: Discrimination Indices of SGAT and its Subsets Discrimination Index GSAT Biology Chemistry General Reasoning Mathematics Physics Discrimination Index 0. 8 0. 51 0. 43 0. 43 0. 28 0. 22 Average 0. 37 Table 3 shows the result of test difficult of GSAT and its subsets. Table 3: GSAT Difficulty Index Table GSAT and its Subjects GSAT Biology Chemistry General Reasoning Mathematics Physics Test Difficulty Indices 0. 39 0. 52 0. 43 0. 49 0. 29 0. 31 Average Test Difficulty 0. 39 Validity of the Instrument One of the more cherished valid ity for aptitude test is predictive validity. The provision of any predictive data would involve following up subject for a number of years and the relative of GSAT precludes furnishing such data at the moment. Other types of validity usually, established for aptitude tests are content validity or face validity. A look at GSAT shows that items in the test are science oriented which lies within the experience of Junior Secondary School (JSS) students in Jos, Nigeria. One other aspect of validity pertains to the inter-correlation among five subjects of GSAT. Table 4 shows such inter-correlation. Table 4: Inter-correlations among the five GSAT’S Subjects N – 21 GSAT Sub-Test Biology Chemistry General Reasoning Mathematics Physics Biology 0. 47 0. 54 0. 28 0. 26 Chemistry 0. 42 0. 22 0. 30 General Reasoning 0. 25 0. 7 Mathematics 0. 22 Physics 26 Ariyo, Akinyele Oyetunde The correlation coefficients were found to be statistically significant. As one would expect, there is substantial inter-correlation among the pairs of sub-tests and they all cluster on one common factor called science aptitude. Nominative Data for the SGAT In this instrument provisions are made for obtaining ipsa tive scores and normative scores (ipsative scores permits comparisons of the relative strength, of characteristics within the individual while the students’ performance based on normative scores permit external comparisons with a normative sample). The first step in the provision of normative data has been completed by administering the GSAT to a random sample of JSS 3 students in the three secondary school types Federal, State and Voluntary agency owned schools in Jos. Table 5 shows the means and standard deviation (SD) on overall students’ performance on GSAT according to the school types. Table 5: Summary of the Means and Standard Deviations on Overall Students’ Performances according to School Types School type Statistics Biology Chemistry General Reasoning Mathematics Physics SGAT Voluntary Agency Federal State N X SD N X S. D. N X S. D 132 5. 1 2. 53 42 6. 52 1. 92 47 4. 30 2. 51 132 4. 21 2. 42 42 5. 50 2. 20 47 2. 96 1. 62 132 3. 83 2. 45 42 4. 90 1. 83 47 2. 60 1. 70 132 2. 77 1. 72 42 3. 45 2. 02 47 2. 28 1. 73 131 2. 86 1. 89 42 4. 05 1. 85 47 3. 09 2. 01 132 19. 34 7. 75 42 24. 33 5. 64 47 15. 40 5. 19 Note: N = number of subjects; X = Mean score and S. D. = Standard Deviation. From Table 5, it could be observed that the students from the Federal school type has the highest means score both in the overall students’ SGAT scores and its’ sub-tests. This was followed by the performance of students from the Voluntary agency school type. The students from the state school type were found to perform least in all the sub-tests except physics. This result has great implication to educational practitioners and policy makers. Both student, school, and out of school factors that have been found to be detrimental to student’s performance and aptitude in science need to be addressed. Discussions The present study constructed and validated a general science aptitude test for junior secondary school graduate as an psychological instrument to assist in placing students into different arms of Senior secondary one classes. The finding of the present study reveals that GSAT test items constructed and validated have internal consistency. This suggests the fact 27 Ilorin Journal of Education, Vol. 27 August, 2007 that the instrument is reliable. It could be adopted and adapted in the country and in other parts of the world to place students into senior secondary schools one. The average discriminative and difficulty index of GSAT were found to be 0. 37 and 0. 39 respectively. This also attests to validity of the instrument in line with Bloom (1976) assertion that good item difficulty fall within the range of 0. 4 to 0. . It was also discovered that there was a substantial inter-correlation among GSAT subscales. This also buttresses the fact that the present instrument is both valid and reliable. Therefore the present instrument is relevant and applicable to Junior Secondary School graduates. The instrument could be obtained by users from the author. Recommendations Placement of Junior Secondary School Gra duate into senior secondary one class should be based on their performance in aptitude test. Students that do well in GSAT for instance are expected to be placed in science classes in senior secondary one. A student who does not do well in GSAT may be given some other types of aptitude tests that will predict their future learning and capability. Researchers should concentrate more efforts on factors that could improve students’ aptitude since previous researches have identified aptitude as a key factor on student’s performance in school. For instance, Ariyo (2006) findings revealed that physics general aptitude has the highest causal influence on senior secondary school students’ physics achievement in Oyo State. Out of the nine predictor variables, hypothesized to exert causal influence on achievement in physics, four variables: school type, student gender, student attitude to physics and physics general aptitude significantly exert such causal influence directly. Of the four variables, physics general aptitude has the highest contribution to achievement in physics; it was followed by students’ gender, then the students’ attitude towards physics, and school type factor. Physics general aptitude accounted for 50. 87% of the total effect on criterion variable and 46. 6% of the direct effect. Similar work like the present study should be done in arts and humanity to make the present study more robust. There should also be closer monitoring services in state school type across the country and in other parts of the world. Both science students and teachers from the state school type should be given incentive that will motivate them to do well in science subjects. Positive attitude t owards science subjects should be reinforced among students.

5 Minute Activities for Elementary School Teachers

5 Minute Activities for Elementary School Teachers Every elementary school teacher dreads that point  of the day when they don’t have enough time to start a new lesson, but yet, they have a few extra minutes to spare before the bell rings. This â€Å"wait time† or â€Å"lull† is the perfect opportunity for a quick activity  for the class. And,  what’s great about this type of  time-filler activity is that it requires little to  no preparation and the students tend to think of them as â€Å"play† time. Check out these ideas:   Mystery Box This five minute filler is a terrific way for students to develop their thinking strategies. Secretly place an item into a covered shoe box and ask the students to figure out what is inside without opening it. Allow them to use all of their senses to find out what is in the box: touch it, smell it, shake it. Suggest to them to ask â€Å"yes† or â€Å"no† questions such as, â€Å"Can I eat it?† or â€Å"Is it bigger than a baseball?† Once they figure out what the item is, open the box and let them see it. Sticky Notes   This quick time filler helps students build their vocabulary and spelling skills. Write compound words in advance on sticky notes, dividing each half of the word into two notes. For example, write â€Å"base† on one note and â€Å"ball† on the other. Then, place one sticky note on each student’s desk. Then students can go around the classroom and find the peer who owns the note that  makes the compound word. Pass the Ball   A great way to reinforce fluency is to have the students sit on their desks and pass a ball while saying anything, from rhyming words to naming the capitals of the United States. This is a fun time filler where students will enjoy playing while reinforcing important learning concepts. The act of passing a ball engages students and keeps their attention, and encourages order within the classroom by limiting who is speaking and when. Should students get out of hand, use this as a  teachable moment  and review what it means to be respectful of each other.   Line  Up This is a great five minute activity to take your time lining the students up for lunch or a special event. Have all of the students remain in their seats and each student stands when they think you are talking about them. An example is, â€Å"This person wears glasses.† So all of the students who  wear glasses would stand up. Then you say, â€Å"This person wears glasses and has brown hair.† Then whoever has glasses and brown hair would remain standing and then line up. Then you move on to another description and so on. You can modify this activity to last two minutes or even 15 minutes. Line up is a quick activity for children to reinforce their listening skills and comparatives. Hot Seat   This game is similar to Twenty Questions. Randomly select a student to come up to the front board and have them stand with their back facing the white board. Then choose another student to come up and write a word on the board behind them. Limit the word that is written to a site word, vocabulary word, spelling word or anything that you are teaching. The goal of the game is for the student to ask his/her classmates questions in order to guess the word written on the board.   Silly Story   Challenge students to take turns making up a story. Have them sit in a circle, and one by one add a sentence to the story. For example, the first student would say, â€Å"Once upon a time there was a little girl that went to school, then she†¦Ã¢â‚¬  Then the next student would continue the story. Encourage children to stay on task and use appropriate words. This activity is the perfect opportunity for students to develop and use their imagination and creativity. This can also be turned into a longer project in which students collaborate on a digital document. Clean Up   Have a clean-up countdown. Set a stopwatch or alarm and assign each student a specific number of items to clean up. Tell students, â€Å"Let’s beat the clock and see how fast we can clean up the classroom.† Make sure that you set rules ahead of time, and every student understands exactly where each item goes in the classroom. As an extra incentive, choose one item be the â€Å"trash of the day† and whoever picks up that item wins a small prize. Keep it Simple Think of the skills you want your students to grasp and prepare activities that correlate with that, then use those five minutes to practice those skills. Younger children can practice printing or coloring and older children can practice journal writing or do math drills. Whatever the concept is, prepare for it ahead of time and have it ready for those awkward in-between moments. Looking for more quick ideas? Try these review activities, brain breaks, and teacher-tested time savers.

TVs War on Me and I

TVs War on Me and I TVs War on Me and I TVs War on Me and I By Maeve Maddox Television scriptwriters or perhaps actors who are failing to read what has been written for themseem to be determined to reverse the functions of the pronouns I and me in American speech. Refresher I is the subject form of the first person personal pronoun. It stands for the person speaking. This subject form is used as the subject of a sentence: I am attending a conference in Chicago this week. Charles and I are attending the conference together. NOTE: The courteous way to construct a compound subject in which I is one of the subject words is to place the other person first: Charles and I are attending. He and I are attending. Purists may insist on It is I, but in conversation, most Americans say Its me. Its safe to say, therefore, that the ONLY time to use the pronoun I is as the subject of a sentence. Me is the object form of the first person personal pronoun. It is the receiver of an action or the object of a preposition. It is NEVER the subject of a verb. Examples: Direct object: Please invite me. Please invite Tommy and me. Indirect object: Give me the book. Give James and me the book. Object of preposition: Dads riding with me. (object of with) The children live with Sally and me. In writing fiction I know enough not to put the same grammar or vocabulary in the mouths of a child, a garage mechanic, an ESL learner, and a college professor. On the other hand, unless theres something about the characters personality to make him deliberately flout the rules of standard English, I would have a native English speaker who has completed at least eight years of formal education use the pronouns I and me correctly. I might put the construction Me and him went to the movies into the mouth of a privately-educated teenager who wanted to make his parents cringe, but I wouldnt give the line to an assistant district attorneyunless I meant for the reader to question her credibility. See what you think of these gleanings from Prime Time: Law and Order Him and Eric had words at the Baby Doll a young bank executive Did he ever confide in you what him and Kate have been going through? Detective Green Callng on Wong and I to attend Alexandra Borgia, Assistant District Attorney Cold Case Files Vic and him stopped talking as soon as she moved out. a fireman Without A Trace I was looking for a recent photo of Jimmy and I affluent, apparently educated girlfriend of a missing person Did he ever talk about a grudge between he and some of the guys? Jack Malone, senior FBI agent Numbers I made a reservation for Megan and I at an Ethiopian restaurant. Larry Fleinhardt, PhD Want to improve your English in five minutes a day? Get a subscription and start receiving our writing tips and exercises daily! Keep learning! Browse the Grammar category, check our popular posts, or choose a related post below:12 Types of LanguageConfused Words #3: Lose, Loose, LossPassed vs Past

Congestion Problem in Beijing, China Research Paper

Congestion Problem in Beijing, China - Research Paper Example This is the political center of China, and it is among the modern and dynamic cities in cities. In just over a decade, the population Beijing has grown by nearly 42 per cent to nearly 20 million people, and this makes it one of the fastest growing cities in the world (Feng, 2012). Unlike the previous years, the scene of bicycles as previously witnessed has been replaced with by parked cars and crowded subways. The number of registered automobiles grew from 1.9 million in 2002 to more than 5 million automobiles in 2012 (Feng, 2012). It is important to remember that Beijing has more than 15 subways and rail lines totaling to more than 450 kilometers, one of the longest in the world. Despite this, congestion is still a major problem. The question therefore remains, what causes this congestion? The congestion in this city is caused by a number of factors. First, there is the phenomenon of motor and non-motor vehicle mixed traffic (MNM) (Hua, et al, 2013). This is the case where traffic is characterized by both motor vehicles and other non-motor vehicles. In Beijing, there are a high number of bicycles, and this poses a major challenge to traffic management. It is difficult to control the bypassing of vehicles, pedestrians and cycles. This confusion disrupts the flow of traffic, leading to congestion.

Music Buisness Plan Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Music Buisness Plan - Assignment Example For profit entities major stakeholders include customers and investors while in non-profit entities key stakeholders are donors. On the other hand, business plans that are internally focused embark on attaining intermediate goals so as to reach external objectives. Company description Due to the increased need by individuals to engage in health maintenance programs offered by various SPA centers, my Idea is to establish a music company that will ensure adequate relaxation and enjoyment with the SPA centers. On the Beat Company (OBC) will embark on producing Rhythm and Blues (R&B) music. In this way, the company aims at providing various genre of music that make up the contemporary (R&B) music that includes funks among others. In this way, the company targets both the old and young clients who visit the centers. To expand its capital base, OBC will operate as a limited company. In this way, it will attract more investors who will be focused at contributing a significant capital to rec eive high dividends. OBC mission statement is to provide high quality entertainment that will ensure it capitalize on the expanding music industry across the world. Product and services As mentioned earlier, OBC embark on producing (R&B) music. Do to the high demand of this type of music especially among the young people, the company is focused at expanding its sources of revenue by engaging in various income generating activities that are related to the music industry as outlined in this section. Ringtones OBC will provide an opportunity to ensure that our customers can subscribe for ringtones in monthly bases. Each ringtone will cost US$1. With the partnership of a local mobile company, OBC will provide a framework that will streamline the sharing of profits generated by the monthly subscriptions from our customers. Based on the high number of our customers who owns mobile phones, OBC will generate a significant amount of funds that will enhance our expansion. Selling of albums In order to ensure that our customers can regularly enjoy our services in the health centers and back in their homes, OBC will also embark on selling its albums in the local and international market. Selling and loading of flash disks In the contemporary world, individuals who possess computers like to listen to a wide range of music while undertaking their duties. In this regard, OBC will embark on selling flash disks to our clients and then loading them with music at a fee. In order to attain a competitive advantage, OBC will utilize mobile phones, Ipods and social sites such as twitter and face book to communicate with our customers. As the number of clients who visit the SPA centers increase day by day, we expect our customer base to expand thus increasing our total sales. Marketing plan The new technology in the music industry has resulted into a stiff competition that has forced many companies to depart from the traditional lines that created divisions among the artists and reco rding companies among other stakeholders. In the same way, the growth of music companies has been enhanced as a result of extensive marketing and promotional strategies through free services such as you tube, face book and twitter. One of

The trend of agricultural expansion in the US South and its relation Research Paper

The trend of agricultural expansion in the US South and its relation to the slave movement from 1850 to 1860 - Research Paper Example This is critical since the agricultural items help individuals to acquire the energy that allows them to perform productively. The products especially cotton helps in improving trade and production of clothes that are basic needs (Mudlak 989). This means that agriculture contributed to the wellbeing of individuals in the southern state in the early years of 1860s in the United States. Agriculture is the economic backbone of a nation making it fundamental to embrace creative and innovative ideals. This enhances quality, quantity and effective processing of the produce to allow consumers to attain value. It is also critical to ensure that the agricultural produce exudes great nutritional value to boost an individual’s wellbeing. Nations that seek to develop vibrant economies as apparent in economic growth, expansion, developing an appropriate work force and healthy setting should upgrade agricultural practices. They should adopt the conventional farming practices that are technological driven. This increases the magnitude and quality of agricultural produce as evident in early days of 1860s in US. Poor understanding on how agricultural practices were enhanced in the southern part of US impedes growth in several settings. Poor knowledge has affected food safety and production of crops. Lack of knowledge hinders production of quality agricultural products with appropriate nutritional content (Boyer 2). This study equips various stakeholders with information on the expansion trends of agricultural production in the southern part of US in the period between 1850s - 1860s, and its relationship with slavery. The research allows people to understand the significance of agriculture to the economy and societal process. This is critical because agriculture contributes to food security, job creation, interdependence and development of effective health standards from 1860s. It played

SMAILL GROUP Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 1

SMAILL GROUP - Essay Example I knew all of the male group colleagues from prior interaction, and they were all capable of getting work done under some close supervision. The first person, from interaction in and out of class, I presumed him to be organized, hardworking, and brilliant could perform quality work. The second male colleague made the impression of someone who moves with the crowd, in that I knew if I could get the cooperation of the other members, he would also be inclined to contribute. While, among the female colleagues, two of them were already my friends and seeing them on my group was a relief. From our interaction, the level of commitment they each put in their personal work and class work assured me of support in any task we were to be assigned. However, the third female colleague, I had never interacted with, but from observing her and the way she handled herself, made me think she would pose a challenge in submitting any task assigned her to research. Group assignments meant that we were to have meetings for discussions, individual research on topics, compilation by members, revisions and presentations for the class on the findings. This implies that we had to spend quality time in the library doing research and discussing. In the course of our study, our group became among the highly rated in the class in performing and coordination tasks. This was because there was cohesion and mutual understanding of the group objectives among members in doing group tasks, thus, we were able to achieve high marks due to the quality of the work we presented in class, and majority of our lecturers acknowledged the quality of work we completed. Socially, we created a bond that I never thought we could achieve when the group was first created, this level of interaction made our group to be respected and relied on by our classmates on tasks. Over the course of the academic year,

Final project proposal Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Final project proposal - Assignment Example al., p13). Internationalization theory postulates that production by one company as opposed to many companies is much beneficial and this is one of the major reasons why most company would rather extend its operations to different location (internationationalization). (Bayraktutan& Yusuf, 23) In providing accounts why internationalization has survived in unlikely environment, suggests that technological transfer among the Multinational Corporations has played a key role in that, most of the developing countries are not able to access modern technologies that are associated with large production. This makes it possible for the Multinational Enterprises (MNE) to get access to such developing nations because of their financial muscles. The objective will be followed by the inquiry which deals with the question of how these companies should behave in terms of entry mode, subsidiaries, activities performed. The paper especially has the purpose of assessing how Multinational Enterprises deal with uncertainty once the decision of establishing an FDI has been reached. Casillias, J./ Moreno, A./ Acedo, F./ Gallego, M./ Ramos, E. (2009): An integrative Model of The Role of Knowledge in The Internationalization Process, in: Journal of World Business, 2009-07, Volume 44, Issue 3, pp.

SMAILL GROUP Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 1

SMAILL GROUP - Essay Example I knew all of the male group colleagues from prior interaction, and they were all capable of getting work done under some close supervision. The first person, from interaction in and out of class, I presumed him to be organized, hardworking, and brilliant could perform quality work. The second male colleague made the impression of someone who moves with the crowd, in that I knew if I could get the cooperation of the other members, he would also be inclined to contribute. While, among the female colleagues, two of them were already my friends and seeing them on my group was a relief. From our interaction, the level of commitment they each put in their personal work and class work assured me of support in any task we were to be assigned. However, the third female colleague, I had never interacted with, but from observing her and the way she handled herself, made me think she would pose a challenge in submitting any task assigned her to research. Group assignments meant that we were to have meetings for discussions, individual research on topics, compilation by members, revisions and presentations for the class on the findings. This implies that we had to spend quality time in the library doing research and discussing. In the course of our study, our group became among the highly rated in the class in performing and coordination tasks. This was because there was cohesion and mutual understanding of the group objectives among members in doing group tasks, thus, we were able to achieve high marks due to the quality of the work we presented in class, and majority of our lecturers acknowledged the quality of work we completed. Socially, we created a bond that I never thought we could achieve when the group was first created, this level of interaction made our group to be respected and relied on by our classmates on tasks. Over the course of the academic year,

Rohm and Haas Case Study Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Rohm and Haas Case Study - Essay Example Allowing direct sales promotion besides advertising and sponsorship marketing will help in reaching out both small-scale and large-scale industries. Cons: Utilizing various media for spreading awareness would be a costly affair. Motivating the existing metalworking formulators to sell this product as individual package would be highly challenging because of low profit margin for large-scale dealers and less budget for this project. Recommendations: The second alternative best suits the present situation for improving sales of Kathon MWX. Considering the 1982 Census of Wholesale Trade that listed 14327 industrial supply houses, which supplied products from larger formulators to majority of the ferrous metalworking industries, no better option for improving promotion of Kathon MWX can be found. These industrial supply houses sell products from large-scale formulators to various segments of metalworking industries; in the formulations, they use Kathon 886 MW as a concentrate and for mai ntenance rather than Kathon MWX. The domestic market comprises mainly of non-ferrous metalworking industries that produce aluminum sheet, foil, and cans in large scale. This segment is well aware of Kathon 886 MW. However, this segment would not require Kathon MWX to treat their tanks of more than 15,000 gallons. In such situation, introducing Kathon MWX to the 14,327 industrial supply houses would help in ensuring it reaches more number of customers because of their customer base. These channels of distributors will also be aware of the requirement of various industries for Kathon MWX and Kathon 886 MW. Considering that the industrial supply houses sell Kathon 886 MW as a part of formulation package from other formulators/distributors, and that Kathon 886 MW is the... The paper proposed several alternatives that best suit the situation in Rohm and Haas for improving sales of Kathon MWX. Considering the 1982 Census of Wholesale Trade that listed 14327 industrial supply houses, which supplied products from larger formulators to majority of the ferrous metalworking industries, no better option for improving promotion of Kathon MWX can be found. These industrial supply houses sell products from large-scale formulators to various segments of metalworking industries; in the formulations, they use Kathon 886 MW as a concentrate and for maintenance rather than Kathon MWX. The domestic market comprises mainly of non-ferrous metalworking industries that produce aluminum sheet, foil, and cans in large scale. This segment is well aware of Kathon 886 MW. However, this segment would not require Kathon MWX to treat their tanks of more than 15,000 gallons. In such situation, introducing Kathon MWX to the 14,327 industrial supply houses would help in ensuring it r eaches more number of customers because of their customer base. These channels of distributors will also be aware of the requirement of various industries for Kathon MWX and Kathon 886 MW. Considering that the industrial supply houses sell Kathon 886 MW as a part of formulation package from other formulators/distributors, and that Kathon 886 MW is the most preferred biocide, it would be easier to convince them to sell Kathon MWX.

Compare and contrast mongol rule Essay Example for Free

Compare and contrast mongol rule Essay During the 12th and 13th centuries the Mongols swept across Eurasia and conquered various peoples, including the Persians and Chinese. There are many slmllarltles and differences In the political and economic effects of Mongol rule on the Abbasid Empire In Persia and on the Yuan Dynasty In china. In both regions, the Mongols were relatively tolerant of all religions. However, they differed in that the Mongols allowed Persia to have native administrators but did not allow China to. When the Mongols ruled in Persia and China, they respected all the religions they encountered. In Persia, the Mongols were attracted to Islam and overtime they ssimilated to it. The Mongols were intrigued by Muslim society and by the year 1295, the Persian khanate had converted to Islam. They built mosques throughout the region and returned Islam toa privileged position of Persian society. The Mongols were also tolerant of the other religions in Persia including. Nestorian Christianity, Buddhism and Judaism. In China as well, the Mongols respected all cultural and religious traditions. They began to adopt some of Chinese culture, like ancestor worship. Khubilai Khan even built temples for his predecessors, so he could practice ancestor worship. The Mongols tolerated religions and belief systems such as, Confucianism, Daoism, Buddhism and Christianity. They allowed churches, temples and shrines to be built, because they wanted to maintain a good relationship with the people ot the region. Although the Mongols tolerated Confucianism, they did not allow It to have official support. The Mongols effects on rellglon In Persia and china were quite similar. The Mongols ways of governing In Persia differed from how they governed In China. In Persia, the Mongols ruled using ideas from Persian bureaucracy. They set up many district and appointed provincial governors. The highest government positions were held by Mongols, but Persians were allowed to be government offcers at lower levels. Persians served as state officials, ministers and provincial governors. The Mongols allowed the Persians to govern the ilkhanate because they knew the Persians had a successful government and would be able to maintain order. However, the Mongols required the Persians to deliver tax receipts as a way of limiting Persian power. The Mongols set up government in China very differently than they had in Persia. The Mongols pushed native Chinese people to the bottom of the hierarchy. The Mongols got rid of Civil Service Exams because they thought there was no need for them. They did not make use of Chinese administrative talent; instead they had foreign administrators govern China. The governing staff included Persians, Arabs and some Europeans. The Mongols didnt want Chinese people to rule because all they wanted from China was to generate revenue and have the people be cultivators. The Mongols governed and treated the Chinese and Persian people very differently. The Mongols political and economic control on Persia and China were alike In some ways and unalike in others. The treatment and tolerance of religions in China ere very similar to that In Persia. Yet, the administrative control in Persia differed than the administrative control In China. The Mongols had multiple methods of ruling conquered regions, none 0T wnlcn were very successTul. However, tnrougnout the Mongols rule, they facilitated trade and encouraged long distance communication throughout Eurasia, which led to cultural diffusion that can still be seen today. Additionally, the Mongols support of Islam helped establish its popularity and encouraged its spread, which has contributed to Islam being the fastest growing and second largest religion.

Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements

Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements Abstract This paper studies the effect on trade flows of RTAs signed between developing economies. It uses a variation of the gravity model of trade to asses five RTAs: Mercosur, The Andean Community, SICA, the EU, Chile-China. Contents Abstract iii List of Figures vi List of Tables vi List of Formulas vi 1. Introduction viii 1.1Background viii 1.2 Problem definition x 1.3 Research Objective x 1.3.1 Major research question x 1.3.2 Minor research question xi 1.4 Theoretical Framework xi 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade xi 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design xii 1.4.3 Research Assumptions xii 1.4.4 Research Limitations xii 1.5 Thesis Structure xiii 2. Literature Review xiii 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion xiv 2.1.1 Trade Creation xiv 2.1.2 Trade Diversion xvii 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation xviii 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs xx 3.Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology xxi 3.1 Theoretical Framework xxi 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building xxi 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis xxii 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade xxiii 3.1.4 Research Assumptions xxvii 3.1.5 Research Limitations xxvii 3.2 Research Methodology xxvii 3.2.1 Research Type and Approach xxvii 3.2.2 Data Collection xxx 4. Findings and Results xxxi 4.1 The effect of RTAs xxxi 5. Conclusions xxxiii 6. Appendix xxxiv 7. References xxxvii List of Figures Figure 1 Trade Creation. Figure 2 Trade Diversion Figure 3 Trade Creation Proper vrs. Gross Trade Creation Figure 4 Multiple regression hyperplane List of Tables Table 1 Dummy Variable Interpretation.. Table 2 RTAs assessed and Members Table 3 Regression results of individual years Table 4 Regression results of PCS List of Formulas Formula 1 Gravity model equation Formula 2 Log linear form of the gravity model Formula 3 Current gravity specifications.. Abbreviations CGE: Computable General Equilibrium COMESA: Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa FTA: Free Trade Agreement GATT: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GDP: Gross Domestic Product MERCOSUR: Mercado ComÃÆ' ºn del Sur RTA signed between Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay NAFTA: North American Free Trade Agreement OLS: Ordinary Least Squares PCS: Pooled Cross-Section PTA: Preferential Trade Agreement RIA: Regional Integration Agreement RTA: Regional Trade Agreement SICA: Sistema de IntegraciÃÆ' ³n Centro Americana RTA between Honduras, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua Panama and Belize SS: South-South UNCTAD: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development WB: World Bank WITS: World Integrated Trade Solution WTO: World Trade Organization 1. Introduction Background Four hundred and sixty two RTAs have been notified to the WTO up to February 2010 (WTO,2010). From 1948-1994 the GATT received one hundred and twenty four notifications of RTAs, and since its creation in 1995, the WTO has received over 300 RTA notifications, (WTO,2010). This trend of forming trading blocs is likely to become stronger as more RTAs are currently under negotiation. Of particular interest to economists, and the focus of this paper, are South-South RTAs, that is, RTAs signed between countries of low income levels. There are reasons to believe that SS RTAs may not only fail to stimulate economic growth among member countries, but also hinder growth for these countries. In their book Regional Integration and Development, Winters and Schiffer (2003) state that there is some evidence that North-South RTAs stimulate economic growth in the southern partner, little evidence that North-North RTAs stimulate growth and NO evidence that South-South RTAs do so. Specifically they argue that SS RTAs do not provide partners with access to technology or knowledge that is characteristic of rich countries; SS RTAs are unlikely to add credibility to government policies and may even hinder investment if not accompanied by liberalization of trade with the rest of the world; and, SS RTAs are likely to generate only trade diversion and no trade creation Mayda and Steinberg (2006) argue that SS RTAs are unlikely to provide the positive effects of competition and economies of scale because partner countries are both small and poor. In addition, the loss of fiscal revenues harms the member country economies and finally, SS RTAs are more likely to divert trade rather than create trade. Willmore (1976) and Nicholls (1998) make similar points using the Central American Common Market as an example. Trade creation and trade diversion are concepts that were introduced by Jacob Viner in 1950. Both terms refer to the redirection of trade flows as a consequence of an RTA. In trade creation, goods that were previously produced by a local economy are instead imported from more efficient producers in countries within the RTA. Trade diversion refers to the redirecting of trade from the more efficient producer to a less efficient producer within the RTA. In both cases, trade creation and trade diversion, the trade flows are affected by the reduction of tariffs to member countries typical of RTAs. Trade creation and trade diversion are explained with more detail in section 2.1 of this paper. A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001,2003)), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. As a reference, this paper focuses on the results of Cernat (2001, 2003), Flores (1997), and Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods were used in these studies and the results were mixed. Cernat (2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to assess nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernat (2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. On the other hand Flores (1997), using a CGE analysis, concluded that Mercosur was trade creating. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members. This is different from Cernat (2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. 1.2 Problem definition Do South-South Regional Trade Agreements create trade or divert trade? The literature on this topic is vast and contradictory. Everybody thinks that SS-RTAs are trade diverting. Some papers present evidence of this. Other present evidence that they are actually trade creating. Finally others find evidence of very little trade creation and no significant evidence of trade diversion. With so many RTAS in place and many others underway, it is important to understand the effects of creating these trade blocs. Should poor countries pursue RTAs with poor countries? Are SS RTAs building blocks or stumbling stones towards the world liberalization of trade? 1.3 Research Objective The main objective of this paper is to determine if MERCOSUR, Andean Community, and SICA were trade creating or trade diverting in the years 1995, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2007. 1.3.1 Major research question Is there significant evidence of trade creation or trade diversion on the years 1995,1998,1999,2003,2007 for Mercosur, Andean Community and SICA? 1.3.2 Minor research question Is there significant evidence that suggests that RTA members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and their partners? Is there significant evidence that suggests that members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and third countries? Is there significant evidence that suggests that the increase in trade between RTA partners of the above mentioned RTAs is higher than the decrease in trade between RTA members and third countries? 1.4 Theoretical Framework 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade The gravity model uses Newtonian gravity principles to study human behavior. It is widely used by economists and social scientists to predict flows of trade, people, goods, money, and other variables as an effect of changes in economic policies, fiscal policies, new laws, bans and other distortions to the flow of a given variable. The original gravity model of trade assumes that two countries will trade more or less depending on the sizes of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. It was created independently by Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) and augmented in later years to include other independent variables that may cause a change in trade flows. These augmented versions of the basic gravity model may include: population of the two countries, presence of common borders, same language, common colonizer, and others that the researcher regards as relevant. The gravity model specifications used in this paper are similar to those of Cernat(2001) and Cheng Hall (2003). These specifications are used to run OLS regressions on trade data of 1995, 1998, 1998, 2003 and 2007. One set of pooled data including the years mentioned is analyzed using the same gravity specifications. The results of these regressions provide evidence of gross trade creation and diversion as specified by Balassa (1967) 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design The paper uses standard OLS analysis, with bilateral imports as a dependent variable and 17 independent variables: GDP of the importing country, GDP of the exporting country, Population of the importing country and population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of each country pair, Intra_x dummy variable for each RTA, Extra_x dummy variable for each RTA. The values of GDPs, distance and populations are used in their logarithmic form. GDPs and population data was collected from the WB databank. Trade data was collected from UNCTADs database using the WB banks WITS application. 1.4.3 Research Assumptions Costs of transportation are proportional to the great circle distance between economic centers of countries studied All countries have one economic center, namely their capital cities. The error coefficient of the log-linear gravity model used in this paper is normally distributed with a mean of zero and constant variance for all observations. It is also assumed that error pairs are uncorrelated. GDPs, population, and trade data collected belongs to the population 1.4.4 Research Limitations 1.5 Thesis Structure The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents a literature review that explains trade creation and trade diversion, the effect of both and findings of previous papers that assess RTAs. Chapter 3 explains the gravity model used on the paper, how data was collected and organized, and the considerations in analyzing data. Chapter 4 summarizes the findings and Chapter 5 concludes. 2. Literature Review There is extensive literature on RTAs. This literature either predicts the effects of a RTAs using a computable-general equilibrium analysis or they measure the effects of an FTA using aggregate data or commodity level data. The concern of most authors, and the reason why they conduct their research, is that FTAs and specially SS FTAs may divert trade rather than create it. In the former case, purchases from an efficient producing country are replaced by purchases of a less efficient FTA partner. This section serves three purposes: 1. It explains trade creation and trade diversion to the reader so she can better understand the methodology used to assess the selected RTAs. 2. It presents the reader with the results of previous findings so that the reader can compare the results of this paper with previous results of other authors. 3. It gross trade creation and diversion so that the reader can understand the results of the research. 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Trade creation and trade diversion as defined by Viner (1950), refer to changes in flow of trade between nations. Trade creation happens when trade is switched from less efficient producers of one country to more efficient producers in another country a better allocation of resources. In trade diversion trade is shifted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another country -a worsening in the allocation of resources. 2.1.1 Trade Creation Trade creation can be defined as the net welfare gain that results from the initiation of an RTA, both on the production and on the consumption side. Some economists though, think that it is more precise to think of trade creation only as the increase in welfare from the production side (Senior-Nello S, 2010). In this paper the former definition of welfare is considered. To understand trade creation, imagine the following scenario (Figure 1): The country in question, Country X, say Honduras, imports product Q from country M (United States) at price Pw+t, which includes an ad valorem tax and is the same price offered by other nations in the world, including country E (El Salvador). At this price, Honduras imports 20 units and consumes 60. The remaining 40 units are imported from the US. This is illustrated by the Honduran supply and demand lines in Figure 1 and the perfectly elastic supply curve with free trade of El Salvador. It is understood that a change in Honduran imports of product Q cannot affect the world price of product Q. Figure 1. Trade Creation If Honduras signed an RTA with El Salvador and the price of product Q from El Salvador dropped to PE, Honduras would now produce 10 units of product Q, consume 70, and import the difference of 60 units. Because El Salvador now offers a lower price for product Q, Honduras now imports this product from El Salvador and not from the US. The consumer surplus gains of this RTA are represented by areas a+b+c+d. The loss in producer surplus is indicated by area a. The loss of tariff revenue for Honduras is area c. Therefore the net welfare increase of this RTA between El Salvador and Honduras is indicated by triangles b and d. Triangle b represents the amount of production that was shifted from less efficient producers in Honduras to more efficient producers in El Salvador a better allocation of resources. Triangle d represents the increase in consumption of product Q. 2.1.2 Trade Diversion Trade Diversion is illustrated in figure 2. Again the supply and demand lines are those of Honduras for product Q. Line S1 and S2 are the perfectly elastic supply curves of USA and El Salvador respectively, and lines S1+t and S2+t are the tax inclusive supply curves of the same two countries. Figure 2. Trade Diversion Honduras imports product Q from the US at tax inclusive price Pw+t. El Salvador offers product Q at price PE+t and thus does not benefit from Honduran purchases. At price Pw+t Honduras produces 20 units, consumes 60, and imports 40 from the US. If Honduras and El Salvador now form an RTA and do not include the US, tariffs will be removed on imports from El Salvador but not from imports from the US. After forming the RTA Honduras would produce 10 million units, consume 80 million and import 60 million units of product Q from El Salvador at price PE. The RTA has diverted trade from more efficient producers in the US to less efficient producers in El Salvador, so there is a worsening in the allocation of resources. On the other hand 10 million units are now imported from El Salvador instead of being produced at home in Honduras. At the same time 40 million units that were previously imported from the US are now being imported from El Salvador. The welfare loss from trade diversion is reflected rectangle f. The 40 million units that were imported from more efficient producers in the US whose free trade price is $1.00 are now imported from El Salvador at $2.00. The welfare loss is $40 million. The welfare gain from the customs union is calculated as the areas of triangles b and d. Triangle b is the welfare gain in the production side: $5 million. Triangle d is the welfare gain in the consumption side: $10 million. The total impact on welfare as a result of the RTA is given by the sum of the areas of triangles b and d minus the area of rectangle f (b+d-f): welfare gain minus welfare loss. In this case the RTA generated a welfare loss of $25 million. Figure 2 illustrates that the idea of trade creation and trade diversion can be misleading. If, for example, the sum of areas of triangles b and d would be greater than the area of rectangle f, the RTA would cause a net welfare gain. In this scenario, although trade has been diverted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another, the RTA increased welfare for the RTA signing country. 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation Following the lead of Jacob Viner, Balassa (1967) evaluated the effects of the European Common Market with reference to its trade creating and trade diverting effect using Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) model -the gravity model. In his work he developed model that captured substitution of less efficient domestic and foreign suppliers for more efficient foreign suppliers gross trade creation; which is different than Viners definition of trade creation according to which trade is created only at the expense of local producers. To illustrate the difference gross trade creation and trade creation proper as defined by Viner (1950), consider three trading partners of one particular product countries A, B, and C, product Q (See Figure 3). Before signing a RTA with country B, Country A imports product Q from both, Country B and Country C in equal amounts and has 4 local producers of the same product (Figure 3a). In the case of trade creation proper (Figure 3b), after signing a RTA with country B, Country A continues to import equal amounts of product Q from countries B and C but has reduced the number of local producers of the same product. More efficient producers in Country B have absorbed market share from local producers in Country A trade creation proper. Gross trade creation on the other hand (Figure 3c), considers that trade is created not only when local producers are substituted, but also when producers in third countries are substituted. In this case, after signing a RTA with country B, Country A decreases its imports of product Q from Country C and increases imports of the same product from Country B while keeping the same number of local producers. It is important to note that gross trade creation assumes that substituted producers in Country C were less efficient than producers in country B; the contrary would constitute trade diversion. Figure 3. Trade Creation Proper vrs Gross Trade Creation Like in Cernat (2001), this paper evaluates the gross trade creating effects of the assessed RTAs. In his paper, Balassa (1967) provides evidence of trade creation in the European Common Market during six years since the Markets establishment. Again, trade creation applies to the substitution of any less efficient producer for a more efficient one, independent of the producers base country. The why of the expected differences between the results of developed country RTAs and SS RTAs is explained in the next section. 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Cernat (2003), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. This paper uses methods similar to Cernat (2001) and Cheng Wall (2003). In his paper, Cernat(2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to asses nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernats(2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. Mayda and Steinberg(2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members (Mayda and Steinberg, 2003). This is different from Cernats(2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology ***Intro*** Problem Definition Research Objective Research Questions 3.1 Theoretical Framework 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building Figure 4. Regression Hyperplane Multiple regression analysis is a method of inferential statistics that measures the relationship between two or more independent variables and one dependent variable. The multiple regression model is given by: Where: y = dependent variable = regression constant of the population = regression coefficient for each variable xj=1,2,k k = number of independent variables = error of the model Different from a simple regression equation -which forms a straight line in a two-dimensional space to represent the linear relationship between two variables the multiple regression model forms a hyperplane in a multidimensional space (Figure 4). This hyperplane represents the relationship between the dependent variable and k independent variables. To build a multiple regression model, that is, to construct a mathematical equation that represents the relationship between independent and dependent variables, a researcher must decide: The question that needs to be answered The potential independent variables What is a representative sample of the population should be at least four times the number of independent variables (Groebner, et al, 2008) The model used in this paper is well known and widely used by social scientists to measure the flow of various types of variables. This model is explained in section 3.1.3. 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis To ensure the significance of an OLS regression analysis results, the following evaluation criteria are usually used (Groebner, et al, 2008): The coefficient of determination (R2 and R2 adjusted) Significance of the overall model (F-test) Significance of individual variables (t-tests) Size of the standard deviation of the model Multicollinearity of variables The coefficient of determination measures the proportion of variation in the dependent variable that can be explained with the independent variables used by the model. The value of R2 may range from 0-1, with 1 representing a perfect linear relationship between dependent and independent variables. Higher values of R2 are preferred as they would indicate that the chosen independent variables explain better the variations in the dependent variables. A derivate indicator, called adjusted R2, takes into account the number of independent variables in the model, and their contribution the variations in the dependent variable. Because R2 increases when independent variables are added to the model, even if the new variables have no relationship with the dependent variable, adjusted R2 evaluates the model more precisely. The Significance of the overall model can be determined by comparing the Significance F value given in the regression output of a statistical software application, and the critical value for a given alpha level. The critical value for a given alpha level is determined using t-tables and statistical procedures explained in Groebner (2008). The Significance of individual variables is determined by comparing their calculated t-values with the critical t-value of the model. If their calculated t-values are greater than their critical t-values the variable is considered significant. To determine the critical t-values of independent variables, degrees of freedom need to be calculated and interpolated with the desired level of significance in a t-table. For detailed explanations see Groebner (2008). The size of the standard deviation of the model measures the dispersion of observed values of the dependent variable, and the predicted values for the same variable. It is up to the researcher to determine an acceptable range for the standard error estimation. Multicollinearity occurs when two variables provide overlapping information to explain the variation in the dependent variable. To measure multicollinearity the researcher can use the VIF as an indicator. Generally, if the VIF 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade Following Isaac Newtons principle of gravity, according to which two bodies will attract each other more when their sizes are increased and the distance between them is shortened; the gravity model explains trade flow between two countries based on the size of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. The equation representation of the gravity model of trade is: (Formula 1) Where Fg represents trade flow, G is the constant, m1 and m2 are the economic dimensions of the two countries in question, and d is the distance between the two countries. In its basic log-linear form, the gravity equation is as follows: (Formula2) Where is the bilateral trade flow between countries i and j at time t, ÃŽÂ ± is the constant, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country i, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country j, is the natural logarithm of the distance between country i and country j, and ÃŽÂ µ is the normally distributed error. This basic gravity model is usually augmented by including other variables like adjacency, common language, colonial links, common currency, and RTA membership among others. Different authors have suggested many different specifications for the gravity model of trade  [1]  , however there is no consensus about which model specification is more accurate and serves best in assessing RTAs. Moreover other authors have suggested that the gravity model is biased due to endogeneity and reverse causality (Magee, 2003) and have led others to use entirely different methods to asses RTAs (Mayda Steinberg (2006). This paper uses a gravity model specification that is similar to Cernat (2001) but considers Cheng Walls (2003) suggestions of eliminating dummy variables that might capture unintended trade distorting variables. To assess trade creation and trade diversion in nine RTAs, Cernat(2001) adds two dummy variables to an already augmented specification of the model: Intra_RTA and Extra_RTA. The Intra_RTA dummy becomes a 1 when both, the importing and the exporting countries, are partners in the RTA being assessed by the two dummies. The Extra_RTA dummy becomes one when the importing country is part of the assessed RTA but the exporter is a third country. The model uses bilateral trade flows as a dependent variable and 18 independent variables: GDP of importing country, GDP of the exporting country, GDP per capita of the importing country, GDP per capita of the exporting country, Population of the importing country, population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of both countries, an adjacency dummy variable, a common language dummy variable, nine Intra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed), and nine Extra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed). All non-dummy variables expressed in their logarithmic form. In theory, the Intra_RTA dummies will capture the effect that the assessed RTA had on trade between partners of the RTA; and the Extra_RTA dummy captures the effect of the same RTA on trade of RTA members with third countries. To diagnose a RTA as trade crating or trade diverting, Cernat (2001) designed an Intra-Extra coefficient table (Table# in this paper). According to this table, if a trade agreement increased trade between its partners at the expense of third countries -diverted trade, the Intra_RTA dummy should be positive and the Extra_RTA dummy negative. If the agreement created trade instead, the coefficients of both dummies would be positive. Coefficient Extra_RTA Intra_RTA Sign + + Trade creation and trade expansion Trade diversion Trade expansion Trade contraction Table 1: Dummy Variable Interpretation Cheng Wall (2003) use a fixed-effect panel data analysis to measure the effect on trade of RTAs over time. Their proposed model allegedly controls the heterogeneity bias in the gravity model of trade. In it, Cheng Wall (2003) drop all dummy variables and even drop the distance variable. They argue that these variables bias the gravity model and they motivate their argument in a number of ways. First, they reason that economic distances are too hard to measure with accuracy because big countries have many economic centers, that are thousands of miles apart and that serve as trade centers for diffe Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements Abstract This paper studies the effect on trade flows of RTAs signed between developing economies. It uses a variation of the gravity model of trade to asses five RTAs: Mercosur, The Andean Community, SICA, the EU, Chile-China. Contents Abstract iii List of Figures vi List of Tables vi List of Formulas vi 1. Introduction viii 1.1Background viii 1.2 Problem definition x 1.3 Research Objective x 1.3.1 Major research question x 1.3.2 Minor research question xi 1.4 Theoretical Framework xi 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade xi 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design xii 1.4.3 Research Assumptions xii 1.4.4 Research Limitations xii 1.5 Thesis Structure xiii 2. Literature Review xiii 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion xiv 2.1.1 Trade Creation xiv 2.1.2 Trade Diversion xvii 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation xviii 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs xx 3.Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology xxi 3.1 Theoretical Framework xxi 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building xxi 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis xxii 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade xxiii 3.1.4 Research Assumptions xxvii 3.1.5 Research Limitations xxvii 3.2 Research Methodology xxvii 3.2.1 Research Type and Approach xxvii 3.2.2 Data Collection xxx 4. Findings and Results xxxi 4.1 The effect of RTAs xxxi 5. Conclusions xxxiii 6. Appendix xxxiv 7. References xxxvii List of Figures Figure 1 Trade Creation. Figure 2 Trade Diversion Figure 3 Trade Creation Proper vrs. Gross Trade Creation Figure 4 Multiple regression hyperplane List of Tables Table 1 Dummy Variable Interpretation.. Table 2 RTAs assessed and Members Table 3 Regression results of individual years Table 4 Regression results of PCS List of Formulas Formula 1 Gravity model equation Formula 2 Log linear form of the gravity model Formula 3 Current gravity specifications.. Abbreviations CGE: Computable General Equilibrium COMESA: Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa FTA: Free Trade Agreement GATT: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GDP: Gross Domestic Product MERCOSUR: Mercado ComÃÆ' ºn del Sur RTA signed between Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay NAFTA: North American Free Trade Agreement OLS: Ordinary Least Squares PCS: Pooled Cross-Section PTA: Preferential Trade Agreement RIA: Regional Integration Agreement RTA: Regional Trade Agreement SICA: Sistema de IntegraciÃÆ' ³n Centro Americana RTA between Honduras, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua Panama and Belize SS: South-South UNCTAD: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development WB: World Bank WITS: World Integrated Trade Solution WTO: World Trade Organization 1. Introduction Background Four hundred and sixty two RTAs have been notified to the WTO up to February 2010 (WTO,2010). From 1948-1994 the GATT received one hundred and twenty four notifications of RTAs, and since its creation in 1995, the WTO has received over 300 RTA notifications, (WTO,2010). This trend of forming trading blocs is likely to become stronger as more RTAs are currently under negotiation. Of particular interest to economists, and the focus of this paper, are South-South RTAs, that is, RTAs signed between countries of low income levels. There are reasons to believe that SS RTAs may not only fail to stimulate economic growth among member countries, but also hinder growth for these countries. In their book Regional Integration and Development, Winters and Schiffer (2003) state that there is some evidence that North-South RTAs stimulate economic growth in the southern partner, little evidence that North-North RTAs stimulate growth and NO evidence that South-South RTAs do so. Specifically they argue that SS RTAs do not provide partners with access to technology or knowledge that is characteristic of rich countries; SS RTAs are unlikely to add credibility to government policies and may even hinder investment if not accompanied by liberalization of trade with the rest of the world; and, SS RTAs are likely to generate only trade diversion and no trade creation Mayda and Steinberg (2006) argue that SS RTAs are unlikely to provide the positive effects of competition and economies of scale because partner countries are both small and poor. In addition, the loss of fiscal revenues harms the member country economies and finally, SS RTAs are more likely to divert trade rather than create trade. Willmore (1976) and Nicholls (1998) make similar points using the Central American Common Market as an example. Trade creation and trade diversion are concepts that were introduced by Jacob Viner in 1950. Both terms refer to the redirection of trade flows as a consequence of an RTA. In trade creation, goods that were previously produced by a local economy are instead imported from more efficient producers in countries within the RTA. Trade diversion refers to the redirecting of trade from the more efficient producer to a less efficient producer within the RTA. In both cases, trade creation and trade diversion, the trade flows are affected by the reduction of tariffs to member countries typical of RTAs. Trade creation and trade diversion are explained with more detail in section 2.1 of this paper. A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001,2003)), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. As a reference, this paper focuses on the results of Cernat (2001, 2003), Flores (1997), and Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods were used in these studies and the results were mixed. Cernat (2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to assess nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernat (2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. On the other hand Flores (1997), using a CGE analysis, concluded that Mercosur was trade creating. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members. This is different from Cernat (2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. 1.2 Problem definition Do South-South Regional Trade Agreements create trade or divert trade? The literature on this topic is vast and contradictory. Everybody thinks that SS-RTAs are trade diverting. Some papers present evidence of this. Other present evidence that they are actually trade creating. Finally others find evidence of very little trade creation and no significant evidence of trade diversion. With so many RTAS in place and many others underway, it is important to understand the effects of creating these trade blocs. Should poor countries pursue RTAs with poor countries? Are SS RTAs building blocks or stumbling stones towards the world liberalization of trade? 1.3 Research Objective The main objective of this paper is to determine if MERCOSUR, Andean Community, and SICA were trade creating or trade diverting in the years 1995, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2007. 1.3.1 Major research question Is there significant evidence of trade creation or trade diversion on the years 1995,1998,1999,2003,2007 for Mercosur, Andean Community and SICA? 1.3.2 Minor research question Is there significant evidence that suggests that RTA members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and their partners? Is there significant evidence that suggests that members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and third countries? Is there significant evidence that suggests that the increase in trade between RTA partners of the above mentioned RTAs is higher than the decrease in trade between RTA members and third countries? 1.4 Theoretical Framework 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade The gravity model uses Newtonian gravity principles to study human behavior. It is widely used by economists and social scientists to predict flows of trade, people, goods, money, and other variables as an effect of changes in economic policies, fiscal policies, new laws, bans and other distortions to the flow of a given variable. The original gravity model of trade assumes that two countries will trade more or less depending on the sizes of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. It was created independently by Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) and augmented in later years to include other independent variables that may cause a change in trade flows. These augmented versions of the basic gravity model may include: population of the two countries, presence of common borders, same language, common colonizer, and others that the researcher regards as relevant. The gravity model specifications used in this paper are similar to those of Cernat(2001) and Cheng Hall (2003). These specifications are used to run OLS regressions on trade data of 1995, 1998, 1998, 2003 and 2007. One set of pooled data including the years mentioned is analyzed using the same gravity specifications. The results of these regressions provide evidence of gross trade creation and diversion as specified by Balassa (1967) 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design The paper uses standard OLS analysis, with bilateral imports as a dependent variable and 17 independent variables: GDP of the importing country, GDP of the exporting country, Population of the importing country and population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of each country pair, Intra_x dummy variable for each RTA, Extra_x dummy variable for each RTA. The values of GDPs, distance and populations are used in their logarithmic form. GDPs and population data was collected from the WB databank. Trade data was collected from UNCTADs database using the WB banks WITS application. 1.4.3 Research Assumptions Costs of transportation are proportional to the great circle distance between economic centers of countries studied All countries have one economic center, namely their capital cities. The error coefficient of the log-linear gravity model used in this paper is normally distributed with a mean of zero and constant variance for all observations. It is also assumed that error pairs are uncorrelated. GDPs, population, and trade data collected belongs to the population 1.4.4 Research Limitations 1.5 Thesis Structure The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents a literature review that explains trade creation and trade diversion, the effect of both and findings of previous papers that assess RTAs. Chapter 3 explains the gravity model used on the paper, how data was collected and organized, and the considerations in analyzing data. Chapter 4 summarizes the findings and Chapter 5 concludes. 2. Literature Review There is extensive literature on RTAs. This literature either predicts the effects of a RTAs using a computable-general equilibrium analysis or they measure the effects of an FTA using aggregate data or commodity level data. The concern of most authors, and the reason why they conduct their research, is that FTAs and specially SS FTAs may divert trade rather than create it. In the former case, purchases from an efficient producing country are replaced by purchases of a less efficient FTA partner. This section serves three purposes: 1. It explains trade creation and trade diversion to the reader so she can better understand the methodology used to assess the selected RTAs. 2. It presents the reader with the results of previous findings so that the reader can compare the results of this paper with previous results of other authors. 3. It gross trade creation and diversion so that the reader can understand the results of the research. 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Trade creation and trade diversion as defined by Viner (1950), refer to changes in flow of trade between nations. Trade creation happens when trade is switched from less efficient producers of one country to more efficient producers in another country a better allocation of resources. In trade diversion trade is shifted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another country -a worsening in the allocation of resources. 2.1.1 Trade Creation Trade creation can be defined as the net welfare gain that results from the initiation of an RTA, both on the production and on the consumption side. Some economists though, think that it is more precise to think of trade creation only as the increase in welfare from the production side (Senior-Nello S, 2010). In this paper the former definition of welfare is considered. To understand trade creation, imagine the following scenario (Figure 1): The country in question, Country X, say Honduras, imports product Q from country M (United States) at price Pw+t, which includes an ad valorem tax and is the same price offered by other nations in the world, including country E (El Salvador). At this price, Honduras imports 20 units and consumes 60. The remaining 40 units are imported from the US. This is illustrated by the Honduran supply and demand lines in Figure 1 and the perfectly elastic supply curve with free trade of El Salvador. It is understood that a change in Honduran imports of product Q cannot affect the world price of product Q. Figure 1. Trade Creation If Honduras signed an RTA with El Salvador and the price of product Q from El Salvador dropped to PE, Honduras would now produce 10 units of product Q, consume 70, and import the difference of 60 units. Because El Salvador now offers a lower price for product Q, Honduras now imports this product from El Salvador and not from the US. The consumer surplus gains of this RTA are represented by areas a+b+c+d. The loss in producer surplus is indicated by area a. The loss of tariff revenue for Honduras is area c. Therefore the net welfare increase of this RTA between El Salvador and Honduras is indicated by triangles b and d. Triangle b represents the amount of production that was shifted from less efficient producers in Honduras to more efficient producers in El Salvador a better allocation of resources. Triangle d represents the increase in consumption of product Q. 2.1.2 Trade Diversion Trade Diversion is illustrated in figure 2. Again the supply and demand lines are those of Honduras for product Q. Line S1 and S2 are the perfectly elastic supply curves of USA and El Salvador respectively, and lines S1+t and S2+t are the tax inclusive supply curves of the same two countries. Figure 2. Trade Diversion Honduras imports product Q from the US at tax inclusive price Pw+t. El Salvador offers product Q at price PE+t and thus does not benefit from Honduran purchases. At price Pw+t Honduras produces 20 units, consumes 60, and imports 40 from the US. If Honduras and El Salvador now form an RTA and do not include the US, tariffs will be removed on imports from El Salvador but not from imports from the US. After forming the RTA Honduras would produce 10 million units, consume 80 million and import 60 million units of product Q from El Salvador at price PE. The RTA has diverted trade from more efficient producers in the US to less efficient producers in El Salvador, so there is a worsening in the allocation of resources. On the other hand 10 million units are now imported from El Salvador instead of being produced at home in Honduras. At the same time 40 million units that were previously imported from the US are now being imported from El Salvador. The welfare loss from trade diversion is reflected rectangle f. The 40 million units that were imported from more efficient producers in the US whose free trade price is $1.00 are now imported from El Salvador at $2.00. The welfare loss is $40 million. The welfare gain from the customs union is calculated as the areas of triangles b and d. Triangle b is the welfare gain in the production side: $5 million. Triangle d is the welfare gain in the consumption side: $10 million. The total impact on welfare as a result of the RTA is given by the sum of the areas of triangles b and d minus the area of rectangle f (b+d-f): welfare gain minus welfare loss. In this case the RTA generated a welfare loss of $25 million. Figure 2 illustrates that the idea of trade creation and trade diversion can be misleading. If, for example, the sum of areas of triangles b and d would be greater than the area of rectangle f, the RTA would cause a net welfare gain. In this scenario, although trade has been diverted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another, the RTA increased welfare for the RTA signing country. 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation Following the lead of Jacob Viner, Balassa (1967) evaluated the effects of the European Common Market with reference to its trade creating and trade diverting effect using Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) model -the gravity model. In his work he developed model that captured substitution of less efficient domestic and foreign suppliers for more efficient foreign suppliers gross trade creation; which is different than Viners definition of trade creation according to which trade is created only at the expense of local producers. To illustrate the difference gross trade creation and trade creation proper as defined by Viner (1950), consider three trading partners of one particular product countries A, B, and C, product Q (See Figure 3). Before signing a RTA with country B, Country A imports product Q from both, Country B and Country C in equal amounts and has 4 local producers of the same product (Figure 3a). In the case of trade creation proper (Figure 3b), after signing a RTA with country B, Country A continues to import equal amounts of product Q from countries B and C but has reduced the number of local producers of the same product. More efficient producers in Country B have absorbed market share from local producers in Country A trade creation proper. Gross trade creation on the other hand (Figure 3c), considers that trade is created not only when local producers are substituted, but also when producers in third countries are substituted. In this case, after signing a RTA with country B, Country A decreases its imports of product Q from Country C and increases imports of the same product from Country B while keeping the same number of local producers. It is important to note that gross trade creation assumes that substituted producers in Country C were less efficient than producers in country B; the contrary would constitute trade diversion. Figure 3. Trade Creation Proper vrs Gross Trade Creation Like in Cernat (2001), this paper evaluates the gross trade creating effects of the assessed RTAs. In his paper, Balassa (1967) provides evidence of trade creation in the European Common Market during six years since the Markets establishment. Again, trade creation applies to the substitution of any less efficient producer for a more efficient one, independent of the producers base country. The why of the expected differences between the results of developed country RTAs and SS RTAs is explained in the next section. 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Cernat (2003), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. This paper uses methods similar to Cernat (2001) and Cheng Wall (2003). In his paper, Cernat(2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to asses nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernats(2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. Mayda and Steinberg(2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members (Mayda and Steinberg, 2003). This is different from Cernats(2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology ***Intro*** Problem Definition Research Objective Research Questions 3.1 Theoretical Framework 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building Figure 4. Regression Hyperplane Multiple regression analysis is a method of inferential statistics that measures the relationship between two or more independent variables and one dependent variable. The multiple regression model is given by: Where: y = dependent variable = regression constant of the population = regression coefficient for each variable xj=1,2,k k = number of independent variables = error of the model Different from a simple regression equation -which forms a straight line in a two-dimensional space to represent the linear relationship between two variables the multiple regression model forms a hyperplane in a multidimensional space (Figure 4). This hyperplane represents the relationship between the dependent variable and k independent variables. To build a multiple regression model, that is, to construct a mathematical equation that represents the relationship between independent and dependent variables, a researcher must decide: The question that needs to be answered The potential independent variables What is a representative sample of the population should be at least four times the number of independent variables (Groebner, et al, 2008) The model used in this paper is well known and widely used by social scientists to measure the flow of various types of variables. This model is explained in section 3.1.3. 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis To ensure the significance of an OLS regression analysis results, the following evaluation criteria are usually used (Groebner, et al, 2008): The coefficient of determination (R2 and R2 adjusted) Significance of the overall model (F-test) Significance of individual variables (t-tests) Size of the standard deviation of the model Multicollinearity of variables The coefficient of determination measures the proportion of variation in the dependent variable that can be explained with the independent variables used by the model. The value of R2 may range from 0-1, with 1 representing a perfect linear relationship between dependent and independent variables. Higher values of R2 are preferred as they would indicate that the chosen independent variables explain better the variations in the dependent variables. A derivate indicator, called adjusted R2, takes into account the number of independent variables in the model, and their contribution the variations in the dependent variable. Because R2 increases when independent variables are added to the model, even if the new variables have no relationship with the dependent variable, adjusted R2 evaluates the model more precisely. The Significance of the overall model can be determined by comparing the Significance F value given in the regression output of a statistical software application, and the critical value for a given alpha level. The critical value for a given alpha level is determined using t-tables and statistical procedures explained in Groebner (2008). The Significance of individual variables is determined by comparing their calculated t-values with the critical t-value of the model. If their calculated t-values are greater than their critical t-values the variable is considered significant. To determine the critical t-values of independent variables, degrees of freedom need to be calculated and interpolated with the desired level of significance in a t-table. For detailed explanations see Groebner (2008). The size of the standard deviation of the model measures the dispersion of observed values of the dependent variable, and the predicted values for the same variable. It is up to the researcher to determine an acceptable range for the standard error estimation. Multicollinearity occurs when two variables provide overlapping information to explain the variation in the dependent variable. To measure multicollinearity the researcher can use the VIF as an indicator. Generally, if the VIF 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade Following Isaac Newtons principle of gravity, according to which two bodies will attract each other more when their sizes are increased and the distance between them is shortened; the gravity model explains trade flow between two countries based on the size of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. The equation representation of the gravity model of trade is: (Formula 1) Where Fg represents trade flow, G is the constant, m1 and m2 are the economic dimensions of the two countries in question, and d is the distance between the two countries. In its basic log-linear form, the gravity equation is as follows: (Formula2) Where is the bilateral trade flow between countries i and j at time t, ÃŽÂ ± is the constant, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country i, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country j, is the natural logarithm of the distance between country i and country j, and ÃŽÂ µ is the normally distributed error. This basic gravity model is usually augmented by including other variables like adjacency, common language, colonial links, common currency, and RTA membership among others. Different authors have suggested many different specifications for the gravity model of trade  [1]  , however there is no consensus about which model specification is more accurate and serves best in assessing RTAs. Moreover other authors have suggested that the gravity model is biased due to endogeneity and reverse causality (Magee, 2003) and have led others to use entirely different methods to asses RTAs (Mayda Steinberg (2006). This paper uses a gravity model specification that is similar to Cernat (2001) but considers Cheng Walls (2003) suggestions of eliminating dummy variables that might capture unintended trade distorting variables. To assess trade creation and trade diversion in nine RTAs, Cernat(2001) adds two dummy variables to an already augmented specification of the model: Intra_RTA and Extra_RTA. The Intra_RTA dummy becomes a 1 when both, the importing and the exporting countries, are partners in the RTA being assessed by the two dummies. The Extra_RTA dummy becomes one when the importing country is part of the assessed RTA but the exporter is a third country. The model uses bilateral trade flows as a dependent variable and 18 independent variables: GDP of importing country, GDP of the exporting country, GDP per capita of the importing country, GDP per capita of the exporting country, Population of the importing country, population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of both countries, an adjacency dummy variable, a common language dummy variable, nine Intra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed), and nine Extra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed). All non-dummy variables expressed in their logarithmic form. In theory, the Intra_RTA dummies will capture the effect that the assessed RTA had on trade between partners of the RTA; and the Extra_RTA dummy captures the effect of the same RTA on trade of RTA members with third countries. To diagnose a RTA as trade crating or trade diverting, Cernat (2001) designed an Intra-Extra coefficient table (Table# in this paper). According to this table, if a trade agreement increased trade between its partners at the expense of third countries -diverted trade, the Intra_RTA dummy should be positive and the Extra_RTA dummy negative. If the agreement created trade instead, the coefficients of both dummies would be positive. Coefficient Extra_RTA Intra_RTA Sign + + Trade creation and trade expansion Trade diversion Trade expansion Trade contraction Table 1: Dummy Variable Interpretation Cheng Wall (2003) use a fixed-effect panel data analysis to measure the effect on trade of RTAs over time. Their proposed model allegedly controls the heterogeneity bias in the gravity model of trade. In it, Cheng Wall (2003) drop all dummy variables and even drop the distance variable. They argue that these variables bias the gravity model and they motivate their argument in a number of ways. First, they reason that economic distances are too hard to measure with accuracy because big countries have many economic centers, that are thousands of miles apart and that serve as trade centers for diffe